USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls struggle to make it through 200-hour SMA resistance

• USD/CAD struggled to a firm direction and oscillated in a range around the 1.2500 mark.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
• Sustained strength beyond the 200-hour SMA would set the stage for a meaningful upside.

The USD/CAD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early North American session and held steady near the 1.2500 psychological mark post-US NFP.

Crude oil prices added to the previous day's heavy losses and undermined the commodity-linked loonie. This, along with sustained US dollar buying, acted as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Bulls, however, have been struggling to lift spot prices beyond the 200-hour SMA, currently around the 1.2525 region, which should now act as a pivotal point.

Given that technical indicators on hourly charts have recovered from the negative territory, the bias seems tilted in favour of bullish traders. That said, bearish oscillators on the daily chart make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the aforementioned barrier before confirming that the USD/CAD pair has bottomed out.

In the meantime, the 1.2480-1.2475 region now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the YTD low, around the 1.2430-1.2425 zone touched earlier this week. This is followed by the 1.2400 mark, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish trades and make the USD/CAD pair vulnerable to prolonging its recent decline.

On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for sustained strength beyond the 1.2530-1.2535 area before positioning for any meaningful upside. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 1.2560 region, above which the USD/CAD pair is likely to aim to reclaim the 1.2600 mark and test the very important 200-day SMA, around the 1.2615 zone.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart

Techical levels to watch