5 May 2014
Unrest in Ukraine spurs civil war fears
FXStreet (Łódź) - The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has escalated over the weekend after 31 people were killed during street fights in Odessa on Friday. Deadly clashes between Ukrainian troops an the pro-Russian militants in Slaviansk continued on Monday, with the Ukrainian forces gaining advantage in the last hours, according to reports.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said that Russia's intention was "to destroy Ukraine and its statehood", while Moscow suggested that the failure to calm the crisis in Ukraine could undermine peace in the entire Europe.
Ukraine's acting President Olexander Turchynov spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday and assured that efforts were made to calm the situation in order to minimize civilian casualties in the regions gripped by unrest. He expressed hope that the presidential elections scheduled for 25 May would be carried out as planned, in an “honest and transparent” way.
Richard Kelly, Head of European Rates and FX Research at TD Securities, who sees the situation in Ukraine shifting slowly towards civil war, remarks that in the face of current clashes, the vote seems to be “increasingly difficult” and that the “expected referendums in the manufacturing hubs of Donetsk and Luhansk planned for May 11th are the more near-term risk.”
“Any further moves at secession, with violence likely to keep many against a union with Russia away, could be met with increased military involvement and would likely make default unavoidable,” the analyst warns.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said that Russia's intention was "to destroy Ukraine and its statehood", while Moscow suggested that the failure to calm the crisis in Ukraine could undermine peace in the entire Europe.
Ukraine's acting President Olexander Turchynov spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday and assured that efforts were made to calm the situation in order to minimize civilian casualties in the regions gripped by unrest. He expressed hope that the presidential elections scheduled for 25 May would be carried out as planned, in an “honest and transparent” way.
Richard Kelly, Head of European Rates and FX Research at TD Securities, who sees the situation in Ukraine shifting slowly towards civil war, remarks that in the face of current clashes, the vote seems to be “increasingly difficult” and that the “expected referendums in the manufacturing hubs of Donetsk and Luhansk planned for May 11th are the more near-term risk.”
“Any further moves at secession, with violence likely to keep many against a union with Russia away, could be met with increased military involvement and would likely make default unavoidable,” the analyst warns.