Weekly economic watch - June 15, 2018 - NBF

NBF Economics and Strategy team have recently published their outlook for the next week with key quotes found below.

"In Canada, a lot of attention will be on May’s consumer price index. Gasoline prices rose 3.3% in the month, slightly more than the historical norm for that period. This should translate into a 0.5% monthly increase of the headline CPI measure and, combined with a positive base effect, may push the annual inflation rate up 4 ticks to 2.6%. Core prices, for their part, likely continued to rise at a decent pace, reflecting an economy running above potential and rising wages. Based on these factors, we anticipate CPI common to have edged up one tick to 2.0% on a 12-month basis. In other news, headline retail sales likely retreated slightly in April, sapped by very weak auto sales. Excluding autos, sales may have fared much better, boosted by a sharp increase in gasoline station receipts (on account of rising pump prices). We’ll also keep an eye on the release of wholesale trade sales for April."

"In the U.S, the week will provide important information about the housing market in May. To start with, the surge in new homes sold but not yet built hints at a sharp increase for both housing starts and building permits. Existing home sales may also have bounced back in the month following an outsized decline in April. Markit’s Composite PMI for June will also be released this week."

"Elsewhere in the world, June’s iteration of Markit’s manufacturing PMI will be available in both the Eurozone and Japan. Still in Japan, several indicators for May will be released including trade balance and national CPI. In a bid to capitalize on strong global demand for oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is likely to loosen its production quotas at a meeting scheduled for next Friday in Vienna."