When is the Aussie Trade Balance and how will it affect the AUD/USD?

Aussie Trade Balance overview

The Aussie trade balance is due at 01:30 GMT early Thursday. The figures will be covering the balance of imports vs. exports for Australia for February, and the headline number is expected to come in at a $700 million surplus, which is an overall positive number but still a contraction from January's reading of 1.055 billion. However, analysts at Westpac are calling for a downside miss in the trade balance figures, stating that, "January saw a sharp reversal from December’s shock deficit, posting a surplus of A$1.1bn. But the 4.3% surge in exports in Jan was driven by a $0.8bn jump in gold exports which will be hard to sustain. Westpac looks for -1.6% on total exports and flat imports, cutting the surplus to A$0.5bn."

Despite the curmudgeonly outlook on the Australian Trade Balance, Nomura did point out that the AUD/USD has a habit of reacting mildly to the trade balance figures.

How could the Trade Balance affect the AUD/USD?

Although the AUD/USD has a tendency to experience minimal movement from the Trade Balance numbers, the pair is poised for a negative turnaround following the recent run-up, and as FXStreet's Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted earlier, "the pair retains a short-term neutral stance, as in the 4 hours chart, it continues moving back and forth around its 20 SMA, while technical indicators remain pat around their mid-lines, with no directional strength. The 0.7740 Fibonacci level is a key, strong resistance area, with steady gains above needed for the pair to offer a more constructive bullish stance."

Key notes

Key events ahead: Aussie trade in focus - Westpac

AUD/USD analysis: up within range, still below critical 0.7740 level

AUD/USD: consolidates overnight 65 pip surge, awaiting trade data

About the Aussie Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.