US: Focus on ADP employment and factory orders – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US ADP to report an increase of 110k in private payrolls for March (Consensus: 210k).

Key Quotes

“Given that ADP did not show a material weather bias in February, there is upside risk to our ADP forecast.”

“Factory orders: According to the advance report on durable goods for February, new orders and shipments of core capital goods (non-defense excluding aircraft) rose solidly, pointing to continued growth in core equipment investment in Q1. However, incoming data suggest investment in autos and aerospace equipment was soft. We look for industrial activity to continue to grow robustly and investment in equipment to grow strongly in the coming quarters. We expect the final report on factory orders to reaffirm our outlook on equipment investment.”