Canada: Expect muted job growth of 2k in February – TDS

Analysts at TDS expect the Canada’s Labour Force Survey to show muted job growth of 2k in February, well below the market consensus for a 22k rebound.

Key Quotes

“While outsized moves in the LFS tend to correct the following month, we think the 88k jobs lost in January can be attributed to the Ontario minimum wage hike and unsustainable gains through Q4. We also look for the unemployment rate to rise to 6.0% on a partial rebound in participation and wage growth to slip back below 3.0% y/y on base effects and moderating wage pressures.”