US: Payrolls figure significantly weaker than expected - Rabobank

The US payrolls figure for December was significantly weaker than expected (148K vs. 193K consensus), notes the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Guess what? It doesn’t really matter. That’s partly because the previous month was revised up a little (to 239K); partly it was because average earnings rose 0.3% m-o-m, 2.5% y-o-y, both in line with expectations; and partly it was because we are talking about changes in a US labour force of 154 million people - the difference between a gain of 193K (0.13% of the total) and 148K (0.1% of the same total) is 0.03%. That’s basically a tiny monthly rounding error, a statistical inanity, which we all seem to get excited about. What was clear before payrolls, and still is after payrolls, is that the US labour market is about as healthy as things get in the new normal.”