UK unemployment rate likely to fall to yet another multi-decade low of 4.2% - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for the UK’s unemployment rate to fall to yet another multi-decade low of 4.2% in October, in line with consensus, after it came quite close in November with a 4.254% reading.

Key Quotes

“We look for the pace of improvement in the unemployment rate to slow over the next year though, as firms may be more hesitant to hire into Brexit unless we get more certainty on what the outcome will be. For wages, we look for the headline figure to rise from 2.2% to 2.5% y/y for October (mkt 2.5%), although ex-bonus wages are likely to hold steady at 2.2% y/y (mkt 2.2%).”

“Today we get the final reading of German CPI for November, which we expect to remain unrevised at 1.8% y/y, but will take a closer look at the details to see how much of the rebound came from core inflation after the big downside surprise in October.”