AUD/USD: a quiet start in the Australian holiday, bearish on the charts

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7843 with a high of 0.7848 and a low of 0.7834.

In a quiet start to the Asian week, especially for the Aussie given the Australian holiday, AUD/USD is stable at the mid-point of the 0.78 handle after over 300 pip from above the 0.81 handle last week. 

The week ahead: expect transitory weakness in September’s nonfarm payroll growth - Nomura

AUD/USD is now flirting with the lower end of its two-month trading range near $0.7800. "That area could also be the neckline of a double top crated in July near $0.8065 and last month's high near $0.8125," explained analysts at Brown Brother Harriman explaining that a convincing break of the neckline would suggest potential toward $0.7500 that corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of this year's 10-cent rally by the Aussie.  

Meanwhile, we have the RBA this week, where another balanced statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with no clear policy guidance, is to be expected, according to analysts at Nomura. "Comments on growth, inflation, wages and AUD should be little changed, in our view. The RBA may note the recent sharp decline in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, but against this could sound even more confident about employment prospects after another strong recent labour force report," explained the analysts at Nomura. 

AUD/USD levels

The daily and monthly charts are bearish while the price is well below a now bearish 20 SMA with technical indicators holding near to oversold readings, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, explaining further: "In the 4 hours chart, the bearish bias is clearer, as the pair is being capped by a strongly bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators resumed their declines within negative territory. The pair bottomed at 0.7799 on Thursday, the level to break to confirm another leg lower, towards a more relevant support around 0.7740/50, where the pair has a couple of monthly highs for early this 2017."