US: Focus on ISM manufacturing and core PCE - TDS

In view of analysts at TDS, the focus will return to top-tier data with the release of ISM manufacturing for July and core PCE for June in the US session.

Key Quotes

“TD looks for the ISM manufacturing index to post a modest decline to 56.9 from 57.8, slightly above the 56.4 market consensus and consistent with the declines experienced in regional manufacturing indices.”

“TD is on consensus for both personal incomes and spending in June; personal spending should post a modest 0.1% rise while incomes should see a solid 0.4% gain. We expect the headline PCE deflator to remain unchanged at 1.4% y/y, slightly above the consensus for a slip to 1.3%, which reflects unchanged prices on the month.”

“Meanwhile, core PCE should see a pickup to 1.5% y/y on a 0.1% monthly increase, which is above the market consensus for 1.4% y/y. Motor vehicle sales will trickle out throughout the day and are expected by the market to rebound to an annualized 16.8m units in July though this remains well below year-ago levels.”