US NFP: Expect a well-above breakeven 160k print - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the US Nonfarm payrolls for September will serve as the highlight and represent the final jobs report before the November FOMC.

Key Quotes

“Calendar effects may restrain job growth, though TD still expects a well-above breakeven 160k print while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.9%. Furthermore, the timing of the reference week indicates strong average hourly earnings, where we look for 0.3% m/m with the risks tilted to the upside. The market is comparably more hawkish on job growth at 172k but otherwise in line with our predictions.

The rest of the data calendar is less market-moving, with revisions to August wholesale inventories at 1000 ET (mkt: -0.1% m/m) and consumer credit for August later in the afternoon (mkt: $16.5bn).”