US Presidential Debate: Markets suggest a win for Clinton but no knockout blow - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the first presidential debate is over and the financial and prediction markets suggest it was a modest win for Clinton.

Key Quotes

“Specifically, the Mexican peso reacted strongly, strengthening against the dollar midway through the debate, but it will take several days before we see how it sways the US electorate and the polls.

Leading up to the debate, the polls narrowed substantially. A slew of polling data were released throughout the day and FiveThirtyEight’s “Polls-Only” model gave only a narrow edge to Clinton (the “Nowcast” model had actually turned in favor of Trump late in the morning before reversing back in favor of Clinton later in the day). The polls have been quite volatile of late and there are still a lot of voters that are either undecided or considering supporting a third-party candidate.

It appears neither candidate moved the needle very much during the debate. Both candidates kept to their script on economic policy. Clinton continued to emphasize policies that would increase spending on infrastructure and other programs offset by higher taxes on businesses and wealthy individuals while Trump’s main message was lower taxes and better trade deals.

The bottom line is that the presidential race remains close and fluid. There are still over six weeks (43 days) left until Election Day and two additional presidential debates remain on the calendar (Sunday, 9 October and Wednesday, 19 October). This race is far from settled.”