Central banks: Is the tantrum over? - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, notes that the markets have been abuzz with talk of central banks stepping away from the easing table in Europe, the UK, and Japan and this has also occurred at a time when nervousness has picked up that the Fed might hike in September.

Key Quotes

“Brainard seems to have helped to settle nerves somewhat overnight, pointing out that US inflation remains “noticeably below our 2 percent target”, and there is “greater slack than previously anticipated” in the jobs market. While the market still has approximately 20% odds of a Fed hike next week, the more important takeaway from overnight was the muted reaction in the US long end. This suggests that perhaps the recent sell-off in long ends was more related to the prospect of no further action from the ECB, BoJ, and BoE. On this note, the BoJ meeting on 21 September looks like the biggest near-term risk event for markets.”