ECB looking for no action today - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that they are looking for no action from the ECB, and no hint of imminent action, which should leave the EUR higher on the day.

Key Quotes

“There was speculation that the ECB would consider changing the composition of its QE purchases, presumably moving from a capital key weighting to weighting purchases by debt outstanding instead.   We don't think that’s worth the political headache. 

There has also been speculation that the ECB may be worried about the impact of Brexit and hint that there's further easing to come in September.  We only see a marginal hit to EZ growth (couple of tenths of a ppt) and if the BoE can wait to ease then surely the ECB has no reason to rush. 

We look for Draghi to play down the Brexit impact and focus on the stimulus in the pipeline as full implementation of the March policy announcement is only just underway. So while today's ECB meeting shouldn't bring anything new, it’s actually EUR positive and see a push up toward resistance at 1.1140.”