UK labour market continued to flat-line - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the UK labour market continued to flat-line in the three months ending in March, with the unemployment rate staying at 5.1% for the 5th month in a row (same as consensus), and regular pay growth sliding slightly to 2.1% 3m/y.

Key Quotes

“Employment itself rose 44k jobs, an improvement relative to expectations of no gain. Headline wage growth surprised on the upside at 2.0% 3m/y, while the important private sector regular pay growth ticked down to 2.3% 3m/y, after registering 2.5% 3m/y last month.

The Bank of England has stressed that any downside misses in the data will be largely ignored ahead of the referendum, but there is a certain degree of persistence in the labour market data, and given that much of the period covered by today’s data fell before the referendum was announced, uncertainty effects are unlikely to be weighing significantly (yet, anyways). It suggests somewhat weaker momentum in the wages than previously expected, despite the fact that the unemployment rate suggests a relatively tight labour market.”