11 Mar 2016
EUR/USD forecast: digesting the ECB – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
With the ECB effects still lingering, EUR/USD is extending its overnight sideline pattern into the European session, hovering over 1.1170 after climbing as high as 1.1220 on Thursday.
“Going forward the key sources of potential downside in the cross are set to derive from a continued improvement in risk sentiment and/or markets pricing in Fed hikes more aggressively. While this could lend support to USD near term, we maintain that EUR/USD will be range-bound on a 1-3M horizon around the 1.10 level and headed higher thereafter still targeting 1.16 in 12M”, suggested Analyst at Danske Bank Kristoffer Lomholt.
In addition, Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “sharp post ECB drop took it to 1.0822 before it reversed its trend and even more brutally shot up to the 1.1200 region. This up surge led us to neutralize our weekly outlook and means that the eight month resistance line at 1.1319 and also the February high at 1.1377 are back in the picture. Further up lurk the September and October highs at 1.1460/95”.
“Going forward the key sources of potential downside in the cross are set to derive from a continued improvement in risk sentiment and/or markets pricing in Fed hikes more aggressively. While this could lend support to USD near term, we maintain that EUR/USD will be range-bound on a 1-3M horizon around the 1.10 level and headed higher thereafter still targeting 1.16 in 12M”, suggested Analyst at Danske Bank Kristoffer Lomholt.
In addition, Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “sharp post ECB drop took it to 1.0822 before it reversed its trend and even more brutally shot up to the 1.1200 region. This up surge led us to neutralize our weekly outlook and means that the eight month resistance line at 1.1319 and also the February high at 1.1377 are back in the picture. Further up lurk the September and October highs at 1.1460/95”.