Australia's CAPEX: Q4 2015 upbeat, estimates 16/17 down

Following last November's disappointing Australian capex (private capital expenditure), today's reading shows a capex of +0.8% q/q vs -3.0% expected and -9.2% last. First estimate of 2016/17 capex came at A$82.6 bln, with latest estimate of 2015/16 capex at A$124.0 bln. In terms of Q4 plant/machinery capex, it registered +0.1% q/q seasonally adjusted.

Dec Key Points

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)

The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 4.0% in the December quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.8%.

The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 3.5% in the December quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.2%.

The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery fell 4.2% in the December quarter 2015 while the seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1%.

EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT PRICE TERMS)

This issue includes the fifth estimate (Estimate 5) for 2015-16 and the first estimate (Estimate 1) for 2016-17.

Estimate 5 for 2015-16 is $123,956m. This is 17.8% lower than Estimate 5 for 2014-15. Estimate 5 is 0.6% lower than Estimate 4 for 2015-16.

Estimate 1 for 2016-17 is $82,572m. This is 19.5% lower than Estimate 1 for 2015-16.