17 Feb 2016
UK: Regular earnings growth and unemployment both set to fall – SocGen
Research Team at Societe Generale, expects that the highly benign combination of falling earnings growth and a declining rate of unemployment is likely to be repeated in today’s UK labour release.
Key Quotes
“Average earnings growth excluding bonuses should fall from 1.9% to 1.8% 3mth yoy but including bonuses should remain at 2.0%.
With employment growth continuing be strong, even after the post-election blip, the rate of unemployment should fall from 5.1% in November to 5.0% in December. As this data refer to the trend over the latest three months, the more valid comparison is with September when the rate was 5.3%. We are still cautious that this rate of improvement can continue for much longer, especially as the more timely claimant count data show much more modest declines. The fall of 4.3k in December should be followed by a fall of 4k in January.”
Key Quotes
“Average earnings growth excluding bonuses should fall from 1.9% to 1.8% 3mth yoy but including bonuses should remain at 2.0%.
With employment growth continuing be strong, even after the post-election blip, the rate of unemployment should fall from 5.1% in November to 5.0% in December. As this data refer to the trend over the latest three months, the more valid comparison is with September when the rate was 5.3%. We are still cautious that this rate of improvement can continue for much longer, especially as the more timely claimant count data show much more modest declines. The fall of 4.3k in December should be followed by a fall of 4k in January.”