7 Jan 2016
China: Govt. intervenes to calm the markets - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, suggests that the research house is reviewing their 6.55 yearend USDCNY forecast for upward revision (latest 6.52, Bloomberg median 6.61, NDF 6.87).
Key Quotes
“The state-controlled funds were reportedly in the market buying equities yesterday while the authorities also signalled extension of selling ban on large shareholders. The CSI 300 stock index clawed back a fraction of Monday’s 7% loss which was the most since August.
The authorities also intervened to halt CNY depreciation after the currency hit a 5-year low of 6.54 against the USD. The onshore-offshore USDCNY has widened to an all-time high of over 2%. Our view on the FX policy remains the one that it is directed at restoring a pre-811 degree of convergence between the onshore and offshore forward curves and its strategy is to stabilize the spot USDCNY fixing, intervene in the onshore and offshore markets, and wait for the economic data to portray a recovering economy.
We expect hard-landing fears to persist to be a source of weakening pressure on the local and global financial assets in the near term. We are reviewing our 6.55 yearend USDCNY forecast for upward revision (latest 6.52, Bloomberg median 6.61, NDF 6.87).”
Key Quotes
“The state-controlled funds were reportedly in the market buying equities yesterday while the authorities also signalled extension of selling ban on large shareholders. The CSI 300 stock index clawed back a fraction of Monday’s 7% loss which was the most since August.
The authorities also intervened to halt CNY depreciation after the currency hit a 5-year low of 6.54 against the USD. The onshore-offshore USDCNY has widened to an all-time high of over 2%. Our view on the FX policy remains the one that it is directed at restoring a pre-811 degree of convergence between the onshore and offshore forward curves and its strategy is to stabilize the spot USDCNY fixing, intervene in the onshore and offshore markets, and wait for the economic data to portray a recovering economy.
We expect hard-landing fears to persist to be a source of weakening pressure on the local and global financial assets in the near term. We are reviewing our 6.55 yearend USDCNY forecast for upward revision (latest 6.52, Bloomberg median 6.61, NDF 6.87).”