31 Dec 2015
Plenty of run left in the USD upswing – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) - Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that following the historical 20% surge in the US dollar over the past year and a half (on a trade-weighted basis), they see the dollar upswing extending for at least another two years, though at a more modest pace.
Key Quotes
“There are several unique circumstances with the current dollar upcycle, including that G10 central banks are not expected to follow the Fed’s tightening impulse this time around. How 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or China. If it is the Fed, US dollar gains are likely to be slow and broad-based.”
“Conversely, if the RMB again becomes a source of instability, US dollar gains should be heavily concentrated in commodity and EM currencies. Our end-2016 forecasts are largely unchanged: EUR/USD at 0.90, USD/JPY at 128, and GBP/USD at 1.27.”
Key Quotes
“There are several unique circumstances with the current dollar upcycle, including that G10 central banks are not expected to follow the Fed’s tightening impulse this time around. How 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or China. If it is the Fed, US dollar gains are likely to be slow and broad-based.”
“Conversely, if the RMB again becomes a source of instability, US dollar gains should be heavily concentrated in commodity and EM currencies. Our end-2016 forecasts are largely unchanged: EUR/USD at 0.90, USD/JPY at 128, and GBP/USD at 1.27.”