4 Dec 2015
US NFP to register 150K figure - Deutsche Bank:
FXStreet (Delhi) – Jim Reid, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the market expectations are for a 200k print of US NFP which would be down from that bumper 271k reading in October.
Key Quotes
“DB’s Joe Lavorgna is a little less optimistic and is forecasting a 150k gain reflecting the payback from that big October surge. Joe believes that some of that strength reflected an earlier ramp-up in holiday hiring on the part of retailers, case in point being the big gain in retail trade during October which was the largest increase since November of last year.”
“Joe also highlights the weakness in the non-manufacturing ISM yesterday and in particular the drop in the employment subcomponent. The headline reading declined 3.2pts to 55.9, the biggest one-month decline since November 2008.”
“Interestingly the employment component declined a substantial 4.2pts to 55.0 last month. The last time this series fell by a similar amount was this past January (-4.1pts to 51.6) and this decline accurately foreshadowed a slowdown in the rate of private service sector hiring – job gains in the sector slowed to 151k in January 2015 from 255k in December 2014.”
Key Quotes
“DB’s Joe Lavorgna is a little less optimistic and is forecasting a 150k gain reflecting the payback from that big October surge. Joe believes that some of that strength reflected an earlier ramp-up in holiday hiring on the part of retailers, case in point being the big gain in retail trade during October which was the largest increase since November of last year.”
“Joe also highlights the weakness in the non-manufacturing ISM yesterday and in particular the drop in the employment subcomponent. The headline reading declined 3.2pts to 55.9, the biggest one-month decline since November 2008.”
“Interestingly the employment component declined a substantial 4.2pts to 55.0 last month. The last time this series fell by a similar amount was this past January (-4.1pts to 51.6) and this decline accurately foreshadowed a slowdown in the rate of private service sector hiring – job gains in the sector slowed to 151k in January 2015 from 255k in December 2014.”