3 Dec 2015
Valuation to limit the US dollar’s upside – ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at ING, suggests that the main reason they are not more bullish on the USD in 2016 is the valuation constraint.
Key Quotes
“Based on our medium-term BEER valuation model, the real USD is some 8% overvalued relative to medium fundamentals. We see the USD upside as most limited against Europe and Japan, with the most likely surprise coming in USD/Asia should the PBOC allow a larger depreciation of the CNY in the face of stronger US rates.”
“One final remark for 2016. November sees US Presidential elections. Democratic Administrations have generally been associated with a stronger dollar. Major US corporate tax reform in 2017 would probably be the main risk to our bearish USD view.”
Key Quotes
“Based on our medium-term BEER valuation model, the real USD is some 8% overvalued relative to medium fundamentals. We see the USD upside as most limited against Europe and Japan, with the most likely surprise coming in USD/Asia should the PBOC allow a larger depreciation of the CNY in the face of stronger US rates.”
“One final remark for 2016. November sees US Presidential elections. Democratic Administrations have generally been associated with a stronger dollar. Major US corporate tax reform in 2017 would probably be the main risk to our bearish USD view.”