25 Aug 2015
NZD/USD aims to 0.70 in 12-month – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen sees the pair edging higher towards the 0.70 mark within a year’s time.
Key Quotes
“The significant terms-of-trade shock which New Zealand has suffered during the course of the past year is feeding through to the growth and inflation outlook”.
“RBNZ is in easing mode but with some 40bp cuts already priced on RBNZ we see limited downside pressure on NZD from this side”.
“However, as we see USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in September, NZD/USD could still move lower on a sustained divergence in monetary policy”.
“We have lowered our near-term forecasts again as the downward pressure from falling commodity prices has surprised us”.
“On a 6-12M horizon we do, however, expect negative factors for NZD/USD to fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark, our long-held 12M forecast”.
Key Quotes
“The significant terms-of-trade shock which New Zealand has suffered during the course of the past year is feeding through to the growth and inflation outlook”.
“RBNZ is in easing mode but with some 40bp cuts already priced on RBNZ we see limited downside pressure on NZD from this side”.
“However, as we see USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in September, NZD/USD could still move lower on a sustained divergence in monetary policy”.
“We have lowered our near-term forecasts again as the downward pressure from falling commodity prices has surprised us”.
“On a 6-12M horizon we do, however, expect negative factors for NZD/USD to fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark, our long-held 12M forecast”.