16 Jun 2015
EUR/CHF sees medium term downside risks – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Westpac sees medium term downside risks for EUR/CHF as the pair remains trapped in the 1.02-1.06 range.
Key Quotes
“Macro: We continue to advocate medium term EUR/CHF downside amid ongoing ECB QE, unresolved risks around Greece and the still highly combustible geopolitical set up in Eastern Ukraine. Yet, the cross continues to do very little, holding in a rough 1.02-1.06 range. EUR/CHF downside clearly a patience trade.”
“Model: Our suite of signals put CHF dead last in the G10 rankings, virtually every signal from valuation, to growth and yield all slanted CHF bearish. But, realised volatility in CHF has of course been so high that our risk model constrains the portfolio from running with larger CHF shorts. The model has a 5.5% CHF short this week.”
“Technical: Price is drifting sideways in a narrowing range amid a mild negative short term/medium term momentum bias in USD/CHF. Low conviction.”
Key Quotes
“Macro: We continue to advocate medium term EUR/CHF downside amid ongoing ECB QE, unresolved risks around Greece and the still highly combustible geopolitical set up in Eastern Ukraine. Yet, the cross continues to do very little, holding in a rough 1.02-1.06 range. EUR/CHF downside clearly a patience trade.”
“Model: Our suite of signals put CHF dead last in the G10 rankings, virtually every signal from valuation, to growth and yield all slanted CHF bearish. But, realised volatility in CHF has of course been so high that our risk model constrains the portfolio from running with larger CHF shorts. The model has a 5.5% CHF short this week.”
“Technical: Price is drifting sideways in a narrowing range amid a mild negative short term/medium term momentum bias in USD/CHF. Low conviction.”