7 Apr 2015
Key market moving events ahead – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities, previews the key market moving events and data releases ahead in the week ahead – market pricing for US rate hikes, BoJ meeting, Europe IP data, Canada employment data, deadline of Greece’s repayment to IMF.
Key Quotes
“For the week ahead, it will remain a more quiet week for data and events, but not without its risks. The highlight should be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the market looks for a better sense of the Fed’s response function from what was a dovish meeting, especially after last week’s poor payrolls.”
“USTs continue to rally and the USD trend remained more range-bound as market pricing for a Fed hike in the September-December window still requires further disappointment if that is going to push further into 2016.”
“We also have the first off two April meetings from the BoJ which should have limited risks of action, but probably not the zero risk that consensus seems to suggest. It is a quiet week for EM central banks and data.”
“Otherwise, we look for improvement in February IP data across Europe and downside risks to Canadian employment on Friday.”
“Weekend comments from IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde suggested Greece will not miss their Thursday repayment to the IMF, and Greek FinMin Varoufakis continues to flag the April 24 Eurogroup meeting as the key one to nail down a preliminary agreement that could lead to some funding.”
“But given the Orthodox Easter long weekend coming this weekend, we would not be surprised to hear some rumours of Greece putting capital controls into place by the end of the week, even though that remains doubtful at this stage if they do meet their IMF obligation.”
Key Quotes
“For the week ahead, it will remain a more quiet week for data and events, but not without its risks. The highlight should be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the market looks for a better sense of the Fed’s response function from what was a dovish meeting, especially after last week’s poor payrolls.”
“USTs continue to rally and the USD trend remained more range-bound as market pricing for a Fed hike in the September-December window still requires further disappointment if that is going to push further into 2016.”
“We also have the first off two April meetings from the BoJ which should have limited risks of action, but probably not the zero risk that consensus seems to suggest. It is a quiet week for EM central banks and data.”
“Otherwise, we look for improvement in February IP data across Europe and downside risks to Canadian employment on Friday.”
“Weekend comments from IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde suggested Greece will not miss their Thursday repayment to the IMF, and Greek FinMin Varoufakis continues to flag the April 24 Eurogroup meeting as the key one to nail down a preliminary agreement that could lead to some funding.”
“But given the Orthodox Easter long weekend coming this weekend, we would not be surprised to hear some rumours of Greece putting capital controls into place by the end of the week, even though that remains doubtful at this stage if they do meet their IMF obligation.”