6 Mar 2015
US NFP: Expecting below estimates number
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ Economists are forecasting a rise of +210k on Friday's US NFP, below market estimates and well below the three month (+330k) and six month (+277k) average rate of payroll growth, the bank notes.
Key Quotes
"We forecast a rise of +210k, which is below market and well below the three month (+330k) and six month (+277k) average rate of payroll growth. Slower hiring seems consistent with the softer recent tone of US domestic data, particularly in manufacturing and the oil and gas sectors."
"However, strength in other indicators like the JOLTs survey is suggestive of upside risks. We expect the unemployment rate to ease to 5.6%, just above the Fed’s 5.2-5.5% ‘central tendency’ estimate."
"For markets, the focus will be on average hourly earnings (AHE). Although AHE rebounded in January, earnings have been stagnant around 2% y/y for an extended period. We’d caution that AHE is distorted by compositional factors, particularly early and late in the cycle."
"Thus it can be a poor guide to inflation and we prefer to focus on the ECI wage measure. However, as full employment draws closer the AHE should gradually lift."
Key Quotes
"We forecast a rise of +210k, which is below market and well below the three month (+330k) and six month (+277k) average rate of payroll growth. Slower hiring seems consistent with the softer recent tone of US domestic data, particularly in manufacturing and the oil and gas sectors."
"However, strength in other indicators like the JOLTs survey is suggestive of upside risks. We expect the unemployment rate to ease to 5.6%, just above the Fed’s 5.2-5.5% ‘central tendency’ estimate."
"For markets, the focus will be on average hourly earnings (AHE). Although AHE rebounded in January, earnings have been stagnant around 2% y/y for an extended period. We’d caution that AHE is distorted by compositional factors, particularly early and late in the cycle."
"Thus it can be a poor guide to inflation and we prefer to focus on the ECI wage measure. However, as full employment draws closer the AHE should gradually lift."