17 Feb 2015
Soft Chinese business sentiment index signals towards a fall in PMI – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura, reviews the Chinese MNI business sentiment data release, further adding that the soft data points towards a probable fall in the upcoming HSBC flash PMI as well as slowdown in Chinese growth.
Key Quotes
“The China MNI business sentiment index dipped by 0.9 percentage points (pp) in February to 52.8 from 53.7 in January, much weaker than the average 2.2pp rise from January to February over the period 2010-14.”
“The MNI index is the first data point released for February and the dip indicates downside pressure on the February HSBC PMI. We expect the HSBC flash PMI to fall by 0.3pp in February to 49.4 from 49.7 in January.”
“The weak February MNI business sentiment index, together with weaker-than-expected January trade data points towards growth momentum losing steam. This adds further conviction to our forecast that GDP growth will slow to 7.1% y-o-y in Q1 from 7.3% in Q4 2014.”
Key Quotes
“The China MNI business sentiment index dipped by 0.9 percentage points (pp) in February to 52.8 from 53.7 in January, much weaker than the average 2.2pp rise from January to February over the period 2010-14.”
“The MNI index is the first data point released for February and the dip indicates downside pressure on the February HSBC PMI. We expect the HSBC flash PMI to fall by 0.3pp in February to 49.4 from 49.7 in January.”
“The weak February MNI business sentiment index, together with weaker-than-expected January trade data points towards growth momentum losing steam. This adds further conviction to our forecast that GDP growth will slow to 7.1% y-o-y in Q1 from 7.3% in Q4 2014.”