3 Dec 2014
Beige Book: Jobs and economy continues to expand; optimism
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Federal Reserve sees a stronger manufacturing sector with "widespread" gains in the labor market across Fed districts in accordance with the latest Beige Book released Wednesday. Economic activity increased in October and November.
The release also showed that service and manufacturing sectors "express increasingly widespread optimism about the near-term outlook." However, overall wage and price growth remains "subdue." In any case, New York, Chicago and San Francisco reported that "employers were adjusting compensation to win well-qualified job candidates or to retain or give raises to high-value, long-term existing employees."
Oil prices were raising alarm in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas; but many contacts thought lower gasoline prices were boosting consumer spending. Consumer spending continued to advance.
Key quotes:
Service-sector firms across the District report increasingly widespread growth in business activity, though manufacturing firms report that activity has expanded at a subdued pace. Nevertheless, contacts in both sectors express increasingly widespread optimism about the near-term outlook.
On Financial Services: Respondents noted increased optimism as year-end figures pointed to solid growth in 2014, although some contacts whose clients are in oil and gas production said they expect a possible slowdown in business because of declining oil prices.
A number of Districts reported slight to moderate increases in labor costs during the reporting period. Upward wage pressures continued to be evident for certain types of occupations and for skilled workers. New York, Chicago, and San Francisco reported that employers were adjusting compensation to win well-qualified job candidates or to retain or give raises to high-value, long-term existing employees.
General merchandise retailers say that sales have continued to trend up, running moderately ahead of 2013 levels.
Retailers are building inventories in advance of the upcoming holiday season.
Consumer spending continued to advance in most Districts, and reports on tourism were mostly positive. Employment gains were widespread across Districts, and Districts reporting on business spending generally noted some improvement.
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and based on information collected on or before November 24, 2014.
The release also showed that service and manufacturing sectors "express increasingly widespread optimism about the near-term outlook." However, overall wage and price growth remains "subdue." In any case, New York, Chicago and San Francisco reported that "employers were adjusting compensation to win well-qualified job candidates or to retain or give raises to high-value, long-term existing employees."
Oil prices were raising alarm in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas; but many contacts thought lower gasoline prices were boosting consumer spending. Consumer spending continued to advance.
Key quotes:
Service-sector firms across the District report increasingly widespread growth in business activity, though manufacturing firms report that activity has expanded at a subdued pace. Nevertheless, contacts in both sectors express increasingly widespread optimism about the near-term outlook.
On Financial Services: Respondents noted increased optimism as year-end figures pointed to solid growth in 2014, although some contacts whose clients are in oil and gas production said they expect a possible slowdown in business because of declining oil prices.
A number of Districts reported slight to moderate increases in labor costs during the reporting period. Upward wage pressures continued to be evident for certain types of occupations and for skilled workers. New York, Chicago, and San Francisco reported that employers were adjusting compensation to win well-qualified job candidates or to retain or give raises to high-value, long-term existing employees.
General merchandise retailers say that sales have continued to trend up, running moderately ahead of 2013 levels.
Retailers are building inventories in advance of the upcoming holiday season.
Consumer spending continued to advance in most Districts, and reports on tourism were mostly positive. Employment gains were widespread across Districts, and Districts reporting on business spending generally noted some improvement.
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and based on information collected on or before November 24, 2014.