Swiss Franc to give back some of recent strong gains – MUFG

The Swiss Franc was the second best performing currency in July lagging behind only the Norwegian Krone.

SNB unlikely to hike rates further this year

While recent Franc gains have not been as extreme as back in early 2015, we do believe that the strength of the CHF is currently overshooting somewhat and expect it to correct lower in the coming months. 

The Swiss Franc has been benefitting from the relatively hawkish policy stance of the SNB who have actively been encouraging a stronger CHF to dampen upside risks to their inflation outlook. With inflation likely to slow further below the SNB’s 2.0% target in the coming months, we do not expect the SNB to hike rates further this year.

EUR/CHF – Q3 2023 0.9650 Q4 2023 0.9700 Q1 2024 0.9800 Q2 2024 0.9800

USD/CHF – Q3 2023 0.8770 Q4 2023 0.8660 Q1 2024 0.8670 Q2 2024 0.8820