GBP is at risk of further weakening – HSBC

Economists at HSBC analyze the outlook for UK stocks, gilt yield and the British pound. The UK economy remains in a challenging environment.

A challenging outlook for the UK assets

“We now see the risk to UK equities more firmly to the downside. We, therefore, move our tactical weighting to an underweight. We have a preference for more defensive sectors and energy within the globally focused FTSE 100 index.”

“For gilts, in the long-run, we expect that slowing UK growth next year will eventually lead to falling yields. But in the near-term, the market is too volatile to take a strong directional position so we stay on the sidelines for now.”

“The risks to GBP remain to the downside as it will take time for confidence to return, and some of the current weakness is also a consequence of the continued strength of the USD. Against a broader basket of currencies, GBP hasn’t yet reached previous lows, which it could test as the economic climate becomes more strained.”